Italy is one of the most developed NPL markets in the world, having undergone a profound transformation since the 2010s crisis.

Key Indicators

• NPL Rate: ~2.6–2.7% (2025)
• Peak: 17.1% (2015)
• EU NPE Market Size: €373 billion (2025)
• Deal Volume: ~€17 billion/year
• Recovery Rate: 45–50%

Dynamics

2015 — 17%
2018 — ~10%
2021 — ~5%
2025 — ~2.7%

Institutional Model

Italy uses a market model:

• State-owned GACS scheme
• Developed investor market
• NPL securitization
• Active secondary market (>50%)

Current Trends

• Growth of NPLs in the corporate sector
• Real estate risks
• Secondary market growth
• Economic slowdown (~0.8–1% GDP growth)

Key success factors

• developed legal system
• standardized transactions
• intense investor competition
• market transparency

Conclusion

Italy is a benchmark for the NPL market model::

• efficient balance sheet cleanup
• developed infrastructure
• high liquidity

Model: market-based resolution

Previously published information